The Central Intelligence Agency knows a thing or two about gathering information. That’s why a CIA publication titled The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis is, in my opinion, a valuable resource for investors. Of particular note is a section titled “Do You Really Need More Information?” which [...]
Avoiding regret
I spoke recently with a fellow who had climbed Mount Everest. The first question I asked: What was it like at the top? What I expected him to say was that the view was dramatic. Instead, he said, his time at the summit turned out to be less than he’d expected. For starters, it was 4:45 in the [...]
The good and the perfect
Last week, The Wall Street Journal carried a seemingly innocuous article by Derek Horstmeyer, a finance professor at George Mason University. Horstmeyer described an analysis he and his team had recently conducted. The question they sought to answer: Could investors achieve better results in their [...]
When to split the difference
It’s that time of year again, when Wall Street strategists begin publishing their market forecasts for next year. If you’re wondering whether to put any stock in these glossy publications, here’s my recommendation: Think back a year to the forecasts issued at the end of 2019. Did any of them predict [...]
