Each year, the investment consulting firm Callan publishes an illustration called the periodic table of investment returns. It illustrates the performance of key asset classes on a year-by-year basis. That information is widely available, but Callan’s periodic table is unique: Each asset class is [...]
Phillips’s four horsemen
Don Phillips is a former CEO of the research firm Morningstar. In a recent commentary, Phillips discussed what he called the “four horsemen of the investor apocalypse.” I hasten to add that Phillips isn’t predicting any kind of apocalypse. Rather, he wanted to highlight factors that can cause [...]
Ominous predictions
In a note to clients this week, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that they expect a “major recession.” Are you wondering what to make of ominous predictions like this? Below are some suggestions. First, don’t panic. Yes, Deutsche Bank is a big institution. But it's worth noting that this week two [...]
Stock Tips
As you might guess, my favorite episode of Seinfeld was one titled “The Stock Tip.” It starts with a conversation between George and Jerry. “My friend Simons knows this guy Wilkenson,” George says. “He made a fortune in the stock market. Now he’s got this new thing.” George goes on to explain that [...]
Many improbable things
Aristotle wrote that, “it is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.” Investors certainly understand this reality. For better or worse, we know that the market has frequent ups and downs. On average, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% or more approximately every 18 months. And it [...]
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