On December 31, 1759, Arthur Guinness signed a lease to take over an old brewery building in Dublin. What was unusual was the lease’s term: 9,000 years. It didn't take long before Guinness and his landlord both realized they’d made a mistake and agreed to end the lease. Guinness needed more space, [...]
AI worries
Dario Amodei is the CEO of Anthropic, a leader in artificial intelligence. For that reason, his comments in a recent interview grabbed headlines. Amodei argued that the next generation of AI systems could replace half of entry-level jobs and drive unemployment up to 20%. All of this could occur in [...]
Staying focused
At the 2016 summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, South Africa’s Chad Le Clos challenged Michael Phelps for the gold in the 200-meter butterfly. A famous image emerged from that event: Throughout the semifinal, Le Clos repeatedly looked over at Phelps as he struggled to keep up. Meanwhile, Phelps just [...]
An imperfect science
The statistician George E.P. Box once made this observation: “All models are wrong,” he said, “but some are useful.” This certainly applies to finance, where many of the concepts are imperfect but can nonetheless still be useful. Below are four such examples. Market valuation. Are stocks [...]
Three market lessons
Last week, I referenced the seventeenth century Dutch tulip bubble. No doubt, there’s a lot we can learn from history. But sometimes, current events can teach us just as much. I see three valuable lessons in today’s market. 1. Myopia. Open any finance textbook, and you’ll find that most of the [...]
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