There’s a funny story about Thomas Edison. When he was a child, apparently, he decided one day to set fire to the barn on the family’s property. After it burned to the ground, his parents were furious. “Why would you do such a thing?” his father asked. Young Edison replied, “I wanted to see what [...]
Year-end giving
With December approaching, it’s a good time to think about end-of-the-year financial planning. What steps might you take? One common strategy is to make charitable gifts—to support good causes, of course, as well as to reap a tax benefit. But before doing that, I suggest a related exercise, which [...]
Stein’s Law
A favorite concept in economics is Stein’s law. It states that, “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” It’s named for Herbert Stein, an economist who was influential in the 1970s and served as chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors. Stein first made this comment when he [...]
Sea change?
A key conundrum for investors is as follows: On the one hand, the data on tactical trading is clear. It tells us that making frequent changes to a portfolio is a bad idea and can damage returns. But on the other hand, we shouldn’t be so wedded to the status quo that we’re unwilling to ever make a [...]
Which way the wind is blowing
This winter, do you expect it to be warmer in Minneapolis or in Miami? This isn’t meant to be a trick question. We’d probably all agree it will be warmer in Miami. But what if I asked you to predict the precise temperature in either city on January 1st. This is a much more difficult question. In [...]
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