A few days ago, when the calendar rolled over into May, I was reminded of a saying I used to hear when I worked in the world of stock-picking: “Sell in May and go away.” The idea—based on questionable data—was that stocks lagged during the summer months. This notion always seemed suspect to me, but [...]
An empty room
On December 7, 2005, a curious thing happened in a Harvard classroom. Professor Michael D. Smith stood in front of a group of computer science students to introduce a guest speaker: entrepreneur and former Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg. What was curious was that the room was nearly empty. The [...]
Not just easy, but very easy
Recently, I came across an academic paper with an attention-grabbing title: “It has been very easy to beat the S&P 500.” Not just easy, but very easy. That got my attention because, in recent years, beating the S&P 500 has been anything but easy. In fact, it's been maddeningly difficult. [...]
May 1, 1975
In the history of the investment industry, May 1, 1975 is a date that ought to be enshrined. On that day, the industry took not one, but two, remarkable steps forward. The first change was an action by the SEC to deregulate stock brokers. For the first time in more than a hundred years, brokers [...]
Stock market truthiness
In 2005, the comedian Stephen Colbert popularized the word “truthiness.” This term, if you're not familiar with it, refers to something which seems like it should be true but isn't actually supported by evidence. Are stock market pundits guilty of truthiness? To answer this question, [...]
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