It’s human nature, I think, to be impressed by things that sound sophisticated or look complex. In the world of personal finance, this certainly applies to the planning tool known as Monte Carlo analysis. That’s because its roots go back to the 1940s, when it was developed by Stanislaw Ulam, a [...]
Ten Favorites
One winter day in 2016, I jotted down a few comments about the market and emailed them to a group of clients. I received a few responses—some of them positive—so I did the same thing the following week and have continued that practice each week since. For better or worse, when it comes to investment [...]
Not so gloomy
Is the stock market headed for a sea change? That’s the argument investor Howard Marks makes in his most recent memo. The sea change Marks is referring to: For forty years, interest rates in the United States declined steadily—from a peak of 20% in 1980, to 0% in 2020. The result, Marks argues, was [...]
Exactly Wrong
Last week, I talked about Carveth Read, the English philosopher who’s famous for saying, “It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.” This, in my view, is one of the most important ideas in personal finance. Last week, the focus was on the “vaguely right” side of the equation. But what [...]
Roughly right
One of the most important ideas in personal finance comes not from a finance expert but from a twentieth century English philosopher named Carveth Read. “It is better to be vaguely right,” he wrote, “than exactly wrong.” Why is this idea important? It gets at the heart of why financial planning [...]
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