Earlier this week, someone asked me about a popular and frequently-cited market statistic. It goes like this: The U.S. stock market has historically delivered a return of 10%, on average, per year. However, if an investor had missed just the five best days over the past 30 years, that return would [...]
Dogma
n 1954, Harry Markowitz was a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago and had just finished defending his thesis. Most of the committee accepted his work. But Milton Friedman, an economist with a national reputation, and easily the most influential member of the economics faculty, [...]
Where things are headed
This week, the Federal Reserve caught the market by surprise. In fact, it seemed like Fed policymakers caught even themselves by surprise. Previously, they had been forecasting that interest rates would remain near zero through 2023, on the assumption that inflation would remain manageable. But as [...]
When to split the difference
It’s that time of year again, when Wall Street strategists begin publishing their market forecasts for next year. If you’re wondering whether to put any stock in these glossy publications, here’s my recommendation: Think back a year to the forecasts issued at the end of 2019. Did any of them predict [...]
The Schwandts
Congratulations are in order for Jay and Kateri Schwandt, a Michigan couple who recently welcomed a new baby girl. This might not sound notable except that this is the Schwandt’s fifteenth child—and all of their first fourteen children are boys. In an interview, Jay Schwandt commented that he didn’t [...]
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