In a note to clients this week, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that they expect a “major recession.” Are you wondering what to make of ominous predictions like this? Below are some suggestions. First, don’t panic. Yes, Deutsche Bank is a big institution. But it's worth noting that this week two [...]
It depends
Many financial questions have clear answers. Does it make sense to engage in day trading? Probably not. Should you invest everything in bitcoin? I wouldn’t recommend it. Is it smart to carry big credit card balances? It’s hard to think of a reason why. Many other financial questions, though, [...]
Awaiting the all-clear signal
Earlier this week, someone asked me about a popular and frequently-cited market statistic. It goes like this: The U.S. stock market has historically delivered a return of 10%, on average, per year. However, if an investor had missed just the five best days over the past 30 years, that return would [...]
Dogma
In 1954, Harry Markowitz was a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago and had just finished defending his thesis. Most of the committee accepted his work. But Milton Friedman, an economist with a national reputation, and easily the most influential member of the economics [...]
Where things are headed
This week, the Federal Reserve caught the market by surprise. In fact, it seemed like Fed policymakers caught even themselves by surprise. Previously, they had been forecasting that interest rates would remain near zero through 2023, on the assumption that inflation would remain manageable. But as [...]
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