In 2005, the comedian Stephen Colbert popularized the word “truthiness.” This term, if you're not familiar with it, refers to something which seems like it should be true but isn't actually supported by evidence. Are stock market pundits guilty of truthiness? To answer this question, [...]
The power of intuition
Robert Soros, son of billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros, has a surprising explanation for his father's success: “You know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever,” Robert says, “is because his back starts killing him.” You read that right: The junior Soros attributes [...]
What’s going to happen
This week I received some odd communications from mutual fund giant Vanguard Group. First, they sent a white paper titled, “Here today, gone tomorrow: The impact of economic surprises on asset returns.” As the title suggests, this paper examined the relationship between the economy and the stock [...]
Can an election impact your portfolio?
The past few weeks have been challenging for our country. We've seen some horrific terrorist attacks, and with mid-term elections right around the corner, polls indicate that the country is deeply divided. While the economy has been doing well, the stock market has started to wobble. October, in [...]
Another Rorschach test
As you may have seen, the stock market took investors on a wild ride this week. On Wednesday the Dow dropped more than 800 points, on Thursday it lost another 546 points and today it swung back and forth between positive and negative before closing about 1 percent higher. At times like this I'm [...]
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