In her bestselling book, Thinking in Bets, retired poker champion Annie Duke stresses an important point: As kids in school, it was regarded as a failure if we ever answered a question “I don't know.” But, in the world outside the classroom, the only honest answer to many questions is, in fact, “I [...]
Knowing what you don’t know
In the spring of 2000, University of California professor Terry Odean published a research paper on the topic of investor behavior. The results weren't pretty. On average, by Odean's reckoning, individual investors lagged the overall market by nearly four percentage points per year. The culprit: the [...]
Expert opinion
I love the questions kids ask. This week my first-grader told me that he had heard the word "caricature" and wanted to know what it meant. I explained it, and then we went online to see some examples. In our highly politicized culture, we didn't have to look far to see some exaggerated cartoon [...]
Semi-genius
Warren Buffett once quipped that, “It's only when the tide goes out that you discover who's not wearing a bathing suit.” I've been thinking about this idea over the past week, as markets around the world have given up all their year-to-date gains, and then some. Since peaking at the end of January, [...]
What comes next
By any standard, in 2017 the stock market had a great year, gaining more than 20%. But, was that kind of gain justified, or should it worry us, especially after the market had already tripled in recent years? Of course, opinions differ. But, I think it's useful to understand the range of viewpoints [...]
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